SETTLED.

Prediction-market claims, checked against resolution data.

The audit desk for prediction-market hype.

Social media is full of prediction-market success stories: viral strategy posts, screenshot millionaires, copytrade funnels. Almost none of them survive contact with the actual numbers. We run an independent, automated trading operation on these markets — and we publish the homework: every claim re-derived from resolution data (what actually settled, at prices you could actually have traded), never from a dashboard screenshot.

Claim checks

A viral strategy post goes in; a verdict comes out. We re-derive the math, run the luck test, and check who profits from your belief.

Whale files

Big wallets, audited from their full resolved on-chain record — graded against the exact prices they paid, not their leaderboard rank.

The lab

Every strategy we have tried ourselves — with real probes, real order books, and real money — including all the ones that failed. 29 experiments on file →

The ledger

Claim checks and whale files, newest first. 7 entries on file.

Claim check Advertisement The $624K "two-sided" crypto-candle bot: real profit, mostly rebates, and a recipe that would not build it An X article holds up one Polymarket bot as proof you can build your own with an AI backtesting tool. We pulled all 1.6 million of the bot's public transactions. It made about $402K in cash, and more than half of that was fee rebates paid by Polymarket. source: X (@RetroValix)$624K vs $402K claimed p/l vs cash actually made Claim check Advertisement "$25 → $4,237 in one night" with a Claude agent: no wallet, and a proof video that contradicts itself A viral X post says a Claude-built Polymarket agent turned $25 into $4,237 overnight, and offers it free to anyone who comments, reposts and follows. It names no wallet, and the dashboard in its video breaks its own arithmetic. source: X (@david_marco45)169× in 94 trades claimed growth Whale file Lucky, so far Whale file: Threadbare-Skunk — $1,073,422 up across 42 large resolved bets $4,853,975 staked at an average entry of 57¢. Win rate 61.9% against a price-implied 56.5%. The skill test says: lucky so far. source: on-chain record42 resolved large bets Whale file Bleeding Whale file: Dishonest-Bloom — $3,507,478 down across 87 large resolved bets $6,393,161 staked at an average entry of 63¢. Win rate 44.8% against a price-implied 63.0%. The skill test says: bleeding. source: on-chain record87 resolved large bets Claim check Unproven The "steel nerves" weather trader: a real premium, a 2-sigma record, and a copytrade button A viral Reddit post says one trader made $24,728 buying near-certain weather markets. The strategy class exists. This evidence for it doesn't survive arithmetic. source: r/PredictionsMarkets1.09% return on turnover Claim check Debunked The "4-minute leader" crypto-candle strategy, tested at real prices: both lanes lose A widely-shared article claims the leader of a 5-minute crypto candle wins 70% when order flow agrees — and should be faded when it doesn't. We ran both rules live against executable order books for weeks. The fade lost 25%. source: Medium (benjamincup)3,873 live-priced entries settled Claim check Debunked We audited the "Top 5 weather market legends." The lottery-ticket story is false for every one of them A viral Medium listicle says the weather-market winners got rich buying 0.2–0.6¢ lottery buckets. We pulled the actual trade feeds of the profiled wallets. The real records: +0.2% to +7.4% grinding — and one of the five is currently losing. source: Medium (moonsat)4 of 5 profiled wallets audited